SINGAPORE: The COVID-19 outbreak has us all on edge, seeing how badly it is affecting China and not knowing whether or when we’ll see similar scenes here.
Through the unprecedented social distancing imposed by their government, the outbreak in China is brought under control within a few months. Locally, there may be a few dozen deaths. Globally the death toll exceeds SARS but doesn’t come close to the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 2009. The focus switches to stopping the most vulnerable — the very young, the elderly and those with underlying conditions — from getting infected, and ensuring all those infected receive prompt treatment.
The third scenario outlines developments after new foci outside China keep growing and deaths begin to mount. Governments switch from trying to contain to trying to mitigate the new pandemic. After several months, with thousands dead in Singapore, and millions worldwide, the number of cases begins to drop.
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