Commentary: China's rise is still not a given

China’s sheer population size and economic base will inevitably see it become the dominant regional power – or so the argument goes. China’s faster reopening from COVID-19 lockdowns has added to such arguments.But just how far will China rise? Given the price tag of Australia’s new defence posture – and the significant opportunity costs at a time when COVID-19 will stretch budgets – it is worth still asking the question.

File Photo: An elderly man uses a magnifiying glass to see the description on a pack of medicine at a pharmacy in Dandong, Liaoning province, China. China’s tactics are unlikely to determinatively quell unrest. Spending on domestic security outstripped the military budget in 2018 and will continue to be a significant burden.

China’s mountainous debt, reflecting a cheap debt-fuelled growth model focused on fixed assets, will also significantly constrain policymaker’s options.This leaves Chinese foreign policy ambitions in a weaker position than is often assumed. China must also realise that destabilising measures will be met with an array of strategic and economic costs.

Consider the example of Taiwan, which remains the People’s Liberation Army’s “primary contingency” and a considerable drain on resources.Rory MedcalfThe idea that the US will simply exit the region given its extensive interests, current posture and the importance of its superpower status to its national identity, is of course very debatable.

This realisation alone should be enough for the region’s middle and emerging powers to cooperate in countering China.

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