Commentary: Argentina’s debt crisis shows IMF skidding down a slippery slope

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It’s high time we ask how the IMF’s mandate for dealing with emerging-market debt crises should be refocused, says Kenneth Rogoff.

After the second debacle in Argentina in less than a generation, it’s high time to ask how to refocus the IMF’s mandate for dealing with emerging-market debt crises.

Why was the IMF willing to pour resources into a situation that – at least with the benefit of hindsight – could be resolved only through stronger fiscal adjustment , a debt default, more foreign aid, or a mixture of all three? There is a case to be made that by pushing the IMF to go easy in its loan programme, US President Donald Trump’s administration made Argentina’s latest economic calamity worse. After all, Argentine President Mauricio Macri’s father was a business partner and friend of Trump.But, whatever the truth of that argument, the Fund’s ever-weaker bargaining position probably has deeper roots.

Debt in many emerging markets today is at record levels, and the IMF remains the closest thing there is to a global lender of last resort. Supporters of Argentina's President Mauricio Macri attend a campaign rally in Buenos Aires, Argentina, September 28, 2019. Things have gotten so bad that Argentina has “reprofiled” even domestic-currency debt . It is a sad state of affairs.It also demands an answer to a fundamental question: How can the IMF reconcile the need for a credible regime in which emerging markets can conduct necessary borrowing with demands for more aid and less austerity?

 

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