LONDON/TOULOUSE: Jetmakers see strong demand for airliners even as the industry braces for tough new environmental measures, but some financiers have raised doubts over forecasts that the US$150 billion industry will return to pre-COVID growth in just a few years.
If confirmed, that could upend assumptions that have made the dollar-based jet industry an investor hot spot for a decade.After trimming forecasts at the height of the pandemic, Boeing last week increased its 20-year demand forecast, citing the swift US economic recovery. Once a pandemic travel slump disappears by around 2024, it said annual demand growth would resume a long-term trend of 4 per cent-5 per cent.
Airbus, laying out its vision for more sustainable flying at a two-day company conference in Toulouse, was more cautious ahead of its own outlook update expected in November. One senior aerospace executive said that COVID-19 had cost the industry five years of growth in the short term. And post-COVID, long-term growth could be slower than historical trends notably because of pressure from environmental measures.
That generation of jets"might need a price reckoning," said Simon Clements, executive vice president at Novus Aviation Capital, referring to resale valuations that drive the sector. "We are getting a lot of questions about will that mean you're going to not be able to use the MAX, and the neo for 25 years?" said Phil Seymour, president of consultancy IBA.
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