Analysis-New COVID scare sparks rate rethink in markets

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LONDON : Risks of a new COVID hit to economic activity are clobbering expectations for rate hikes next year from the world's major central banks, a potential setback for the dollar and other currencies where wagers had been most aggressive.Money markets no longer fully price a 25-basis-point interest rate

LONDON : Risks of a new COVID hit to economic activity are clobbering expectations for rate hikes next year from the world's major central banks, a potential setback for the dollar and other currencies where wagers had been most aggressive.

Those shifts come after the detection of a new coronavirus variant in South Africa triggered stricter border controls from several governments, as scientists sought to determine if the mutation was vaccine-resistant. In an echo of the panic that swept markets when COVID was spreading early last year, oil prices slid over 6per cent on Friday, travel industry shares notched up falls of 6per cent or more and two-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 12 bps in their biggest daily drop since March 2020.

Positioning on yen, Swiss franc and euro meanwhile has been bearish, reflecting the view policy tightening is distant for those countries. The sharp yield drop on 2-year Treasury notes - a bond segment particularly sensitive to interest rate changes - pushed its yield premium over Germany 10 bps lower.

The new variant may also complicate the task for central banks if it worsens the supply chain delays that are partly blamed for stoking inflation.

 

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