After enduring a near-death experience during the COVID crisis when demand plummeted and being distinctly off-trend as the sustainable investing wave engulfed Wall Street, cash-rich oil companies are again a sweet spot for fund managers.
Earnings optimism is near a 16-year peak. Oil firms in Europe and the U.S. should see profits this year rise 720per cent to 43 billion euros and 1,300per cent to US$68 billion respectively - the highest of any sector, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S. "It's exciting for investors, but it's bad news if you are looking for commodity prices to moderate".
Graphic: Energy stocks have lagged oil: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/jnvwewlnevw/Energyper cent20stocksper cent20lagper cent20crudeper cent20oilper cent20rally.PNGSurging profits and shrinking capex have left oil companies with rich free cash flow piles and some are choosing to reward shareholders.
Bernstein strategists Sarah McCarthy and Mark Diver have an overweight for the energy sector"in the long and short-run", citing an average dividend and buyback yield of 8per cent at the oil majors.
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