Why the coronavirus is more likely to ‘superspread’ than the flu

For a spiky sphere just 120 nanometers wide, the coronavirus can be a remarkably cosmopolitan traveler.

Estimates vary from population to population, but they consistently show a striking skew: Between 10 percent and 20 percent of coronavirus cases may seed 80 percent of new infections. Other respiratory diseases, like the flu, are far more egalitarian in their spread. According to a model built by Schiffer’s team, the riskiest window for such transmission may be extremely brief — a one- to two-day period in the week or so after a person is infected, when coronavirus levels are at their highest.

If the coronavirus reaches a peak in the body before symptoms appear — if symptoms appear at all — that increase might be very tough to identify without frequent and proactive testing. Symptom-free spikes in virus load appear to happen very often, which “really distorts our ability to tell when somebody is contagious,” Schiffer said. That, in turn, makes it all too easy for people to obliviously shed the pathogen.

The team’s model also pointed to another important variable: the remarkable resilience of the coronavirus when it is aloft.

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