In the time since the world’s scientists and public health officials first became widely aware of the new coronavirus in January, they’ve had 6 months to learn about it. They’ve reached many conclusions about the virus and the illness it causes, from the importance of wearing masks to contain it to the unusual range of symptoms it provokes.
If that same pattern were assumed to hold in other hard-hit big cities like Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit and Miami, it is likely that somewhere between 3 and 4 million urban Americans were infected. Nor will the country be able to spot all of those who get it. The CDC’s “best estimate,” according to the pandemic scenarios it issued May 22, is that about 35 percent of those infected have no symptoms.
Either way, a growing body of evidence suggests that infected children can transmit the virus, possibly as easily as adults. And one recent study suggests that when children attend school, they come in contact with three times as many people as average adults do, providing more opportunities for children to become infected and infect others.
New York confirmed its first case on March 1. Scientists have found genetic signatures on the viruses studied so far linking them to Europe, probably brought in by some of the millions of the arrivals in New York in February; it is likely that there were multiple introductions that spread widely: patients zero, plural.
The answers to these questions have broad implications for reopening the economy and allowing the public to live with less fear of infection in the short term — and for the effectiveness of vaccines in the long term. They are hopeful that based on other coronaviruses that cause the common cold, SARS or MERS, immunity to the new coronavirus might last at least a year, but it remains a mystery for now.COVID-19 is a mercurial disease. While some people experience only mild, fleeting symptoms, others are knocked over with a severe flulike illness that can last several weeks. A minority of patients develop life-threatening complications. Death can ensue.
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