But Elon Musk's SpaceX defied expectations -- and on Wednesday hopes to make history by ferrying two NASA astronauts into space, the first crewed flight from US soil in nine long years.
NASA's Commercial Crew program, aimed at developing private spacecraft to transport American astronauts in to space, began under Barack Obama. In the 22 years since the first components of the ISS were launched, only spacecraft developed by NASA and by the Russian space agency have carried crews there.
But it was only ever meant to be a temporary arrangement. NASA had entrusted two private companies -- aviation giant Boeing and upstart SpaceX -- with the task of designing and building capsules that would replace the shuttles. The weather forecast remains unfavorable, with a 60 percent chance of bad conditions, according to Cape Canaveral forecasters. The launch has taken five years longer than planned to come about, but even with the delays, SpaceX has beaten Boeing to the punch.
"There was huge skepticism," Hubbard, who met Musk before the creation of SpaceX and also chairs a SpaceX safety advisory panel, recalled.
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