The challenging outlook in the year ahead prices in the reality that the COVID-19 virus itself has yet to fade away, various government restrictions are still in place, and the vaccination drive—currently covering less than half of the population—still has a long way to go.
“On the economic front, inflation and debt worries are top on mind, with expected tighter financial conditions globally limiting the maneuvering room for monetary and fiscal authorities and generally raising risks for emerging markets,” the research said. Global Source said it’s still hopeful that the midyear political turnover would give rise to good and effective leadership under which there would be macroeconomic policy continuity and reforms, which would treat scarring from the pandemic and get the economy back to its pre-pandemic growth path.
From a prepandemic deficit of 1.5 percent of GDP, the national government’s primary deficit rose to 5.5 percent last year and is seen on its way to exceed 6 percent this year. The primary deficit is the largest contributor to the increase in government’s debt, which totaled P11.9 trillion or 61 percent of GDP) as of September, up from P7.7 trillion at the end of 2019.
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