New tool predicts risk of COVID-19 hospitalization, death

PARIS - The five percent of people in Britain predicted by a new tool to be at highest risk from COVID-19 accounted for three-quarters of deaths during the first wave of the pandemic, researchers reported Wednesday.

To develop the new application, called QCOVID, researchers from across Britain compiled data from six million patients, including age, height-weight ratio, ethnicity, and pre-existing conditions -- such as high-blood pressure and diabetes -- known to increase the risk of serious outcomes after infection.

While the tool effectively profiled those facing the worst odds, it did not identify which factors caused fatal outcomes, the researchers cautioned.It also only identified risk relative to other members of society but not the absolute risk of severe illness or death, which can change depending on infection rates and precautionary measures such as social distancing, mask-wearing and hand washing.

"Without a clear implementation plan this tool does not yet have a purpose," he told the Science Media Centre in London."These data are derived from hospitalizations and deaths during the first wave," he noted.

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