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'Modified' community quarantine can be explored to flatten COVID-19 curve – study

A study from the University of the Philippines analyzes 3 possible scenarios after April 12, the day Luzon's 'enhanced community quarantine' is expected to be lifted

4/6/2020 6:30:00 PM

A study from the University of the Philippines analyzes 3 possible scenarios after April 12, the day Luzon's 'enhanced community quarantine' is expected to be lifted. COVID19PH

A study from the University of the Philippines analyzes 3 possible scenarios after April 12, the day Luzon's 'enhanced community quarantine' is expected to be lifted

Updated 10:52 PM, April 06, 2020LOCKDOWN. Police officers check on motorists in Rizal on April 6, 2020 as the province is placed under provincial-wide lockdown. Photo by Angie de Silva/RapplerMANILA, Philippines – A recent study from the University of the Philippines (UP) COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team found that an extended community quarantine, whether enhanced or modified, would help flatten the curve of COVID-19 cases in the country.

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The UP team – mostly composed of mathematicians across different UP campuses – estimated a peak of COVID-19 cases in the country by the end of April to June, with approximately 140,000 to 550,000 people infected in Metro Manila.These figures includeundetected, mild, and asymptomatic cases which would comprise"probably" 80% of the total.

According to the study, these estimates can help guide testing capacity requirements for the succeeding months.The study analyzed 3 possible scenarios after April 12, the day Luzon's"enhanced community quarantine" is expected to be lifted:

no interventionsenhanced community quarantine continuesSCENARIOS. Screenshot of graph from report sourced by RapplerA scenario of no interventions after April 12 would yield a curve with the highest possible peak.Meanwhile, a modified community quarantine scenario, according to the graph, would still yield a peak, but one that is lower than if there were no interventions.

"Community quarantine buys us time to beef up our health care system's capacity, while limiting the reach of the disease," the study said.It added,"Thus, a modified, location-specific quarantine scenario can be explored in light of public health care realities on the ground (e.g. the number of ventilators, hospital beds) and possibly different peak periods across LGUs (local government units) throughout the country."

Lastly, extending the enhanced community quarantine, without excluding particular areas, would flatten the curve the most, according to the study.Non-medical interventions such as school and work shutdown, requiring face masks in public, handwashing, and physical distancing"can reduce the spread of the virus and flatten the curve," the study said.

"Simulations can be improved further with more detailed information gathered using online survey forms, where each LGU can input data at barangay level on a daily basis," the report recommended.LGUs can report data points, such as the number of people tested, to improve the analysis of the situation and help make data-driven decisions on which areas should be included in a modified community quarantine scenario.

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Contact tracing with the aid of technology would also expedite the data collection for local governments."We have to gather – and share – as much data as possible, apply the best science available, and ultimately listen to what the numbers could tell us," the report said.

Read more: Rappler »

AND THEREFORE MANY DEATHS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BECAUSE THERE IS STILL NO CURE FOR THIS VIRUS. CONGRATULATIONS PRES DUDIRTY FOR NOT RESPONDING EARLY ENOUGH TO THE PANDEMIC. haynakoanobayan The science must take the lead ..... it’s better to know if now then NOT KNOW IT AT ALL ! Scary. That's 1 out of 427 person you know in MM is to be sensitively handled. Tama ba? 550,000/12,877,253 (2015 census)

Will depend on whether we can do testing to identify all these cases. Advance mag-isip.... 😂😂😂😂

Locally-made COVID-19 test kits to cost less: health officialgame changer! If that is so, let us support the producers of the local test kits like the UP-NIH. Not only are their test kits cheaper but the country saves precious foreign exchange and deploying them will be easier and faster. Also good support for local science and technology.

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DOH: Total COVID-19 cases in PH now 3,660; 414 new casesConfirmed COVID-19 cases in the Philippines jumped to 3,660 Monday after the Department of Health reported 414 new cases, 11 deaths, and nine new recoveries. Global updates as of today. Latest updates as of today.