Even if state-level governments in the United States reimpose limited social distancing measures to halt the spread of Covid-19, the death toll could more than double by the end of February 2021 to 511,000, according to projections released Friday, October 23.
"There is now growing evidence that face masks can considerably reduce the transmission of respiratory viruses like SARS-CoV-2, thereby limiting the spread of COVID-19," the authors noted. Few of Trump's followers cover their faces at his campaign rallies, which resumed after the president recovered from a bout with the virus earlier this month.
To map what the near-term future might hold, IHME epidemiologists and modelers designed 3 possible scenarios for the United States, extending out to the end of February.
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