Despite its grim base case recession outlook for this year, Global Source said the domestic economy could still generate a modest growth of 1 to 2 percent, at best, this year. This is “if government is able to manage well the economy’s transition out of the ECQ and provide swift and ample on- and/or off-budget support to the general public and affected firms, especially small businesses,” the research said.
With the ECQ, Global Source noted that millions of households were now relying on government and donor subsidies for basic needs while the rest had to cut spending down to essentials, while business activities have either screeched to a halt or constrained by restrictions in the movement of people and logistical hitches in the movement of goods.
“Lifting the ECQ too early may see infections rise exponentially, raising more fears that keep demand depressed. Not lifting the ECQ soon enough may see more businesses fall into insolvency, resulting in more job losses that would keep demand depressed. Sadly too, households would not be able to lean too much on remittances, which we had initially thought would stay resilient as in previous crises.
“The main source of GDP growth this time around is government, which has a spending envelope of about 20 percent of GDP this year plus the recently introduced rescue package worth 1.2 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, we think these are not enough to offset the downturn in private activity.
Philbizwatcher Thank you Lord... We can make it.. REQUIRE online ORDER FOR delivery of foods, online money transactions and online payment for utilities, loading through online... In this way, we can avoid people to go out
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