Delta is dangerous and spreading -- but vaccination can stop it

Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the Obama administration -- when he oversaw responses to the H1N1 influenza, Ebola and Zika epidemics -- is President and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives, an initiative of Vital Strategies, and Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations. Twitter:I'm hearing from vaccinated people who are frightened about breakthrough cases, the Delta variant and new waves of Covid.

But in places with high rates of vaccination, including much of the United States, the worst is over. Though we'll likely also see big increases in US cases, future waves won't be as deadly. That's because 80% of the most vulnerable Americans -- people over age 65 -- are fully vaccinated. In the months ahead, more cases won't correlate to more deaths the same way as earlier in the pandemic. This graph from the UK shows why. Death rates have plummeted, especially among older groups, even as case rates have increased, because most of the elderly are vaccinated. But even though the rates are far lower than they were, people in all age groups are still dying.

We need better data on severe breakthrough infections, but my guess is that they're more likely to occur in people of advanced age or who have serious underlying health conditions such as lung disease or immunosuppression, including immunosuppression from medications. It's possible that the mRNA vaccines are more protective against Covid than other vaccines; studies will determine whether this is the case.

The worst is over in the United States, but, on average, 200-300 people are still dying every day from a disease that didn't exist 18 months ago. If that rate continues for the next 12 months, that would total 100,000 deaths -- more, even, than occur each year from diabetes or from the horrific opioid epidemic.

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