'Bad math': Airlines' COVID safety analysis challenged by expert

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“With only 44 identified potential cases of flight-related transmission among 1.2 billion travelers, that’s one case for every 27 million,” IATA medical adviser Dr David Powell said. But some consider this conclusion “bad math”

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PARIS — A campaign by coronavirus-stricken aviation giants to persuade the world it’s safe to fly has been questioned by one of the scientists whose research it draws upon.

“With only 44 identified potential cases of flight-related transmission among 1.2 billion travelers, that’s one case for every 27 million,” IATA medical adviser Dr David Powell said in a news release, echoed in comments during the event. IATA maintains that its calculation is a “relevant and credible” sign of low risk, a spokesman said in response to requests for comment from the organisation and its top medic Powell.The head of British Airways directly invoked the 1-in-27 million ratio to press for a lifting of quarantines on Monday.

That understanding is supported by simulations and tests run by the aircraft makers as well as a U.S. Defense Department study released on Thursday. Dr Henry Wu, associate professor at Atlanta’s Emory School of Medicine, said the findings were inconclusive on their own because the minimum infective dose remains unknown, and risks increase in step with exposure time.

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