quarter, the Philippine Statistics Authority announced another contraction—a negative 16.5 percent. Both in real terms, 2018 prices.
Actually, on an annual basis, the Philippines has contracted only four times in the last 70 years: in 1984 and 1985 during the “golden” Marcos years when the economy was in debt crisis and contracted by 7.32 percent for two years in a row, then in 1991 and again in 1998 when we contracted by 0.58 percent . These last two as a result of international events . Remember the 2008 global financial crisis? We managed to show a positive growth rate of 1.4 percent in 2009.
Given our performance in the first half of 2020, if we are to grow at the IMF’s estimate of 0.6 percent for the year, we will have to post a positive growth rate of something like +10 percent for the second semester. Clearly impossible. And if that is impossible, think of what our growth rate should be to achieve a growth rate of +2.0 percent.
Eleven million families unemployed, or employed but not working, who were given P10,000 to P16,000 over more than a three-month period to tide them over, is obviously not going to do the trick. And one doesn’t know when this is going to be added to, because the President said, “wala na tayong pera” .
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