Can Egypt-Ethiopia war be averted?

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Two of Africa’s most storied countries seem headed to war for reasons that both sides plausibly see as existential.

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For nearly a decade, Ethiopia has been constructing what is described as the largest dam in Africa. And for about the same period, Egypt has been warning against and negotiating with Ethiopia about the project.

Unfortunately, what is good for Ethiopia is bad for Egypt. Over the past centuries, the land of the pharaohs has relied on water from the Nile for sustenance and economic development. In fact, it is currently experiencing drought conditions. So even a small reduction in water from the Nile will be devasting, Egyptian officials have said.

In any case, Egypt is also facing an imminent war with Turkey in Libya . So, even its stout military would be reluctant to fight two capable armies at the same time. That’s another reason for the Egyptians to continue to pursue the hitherto elusive negotiated settlement with Ethiopia, even as they mull their military options.

Given the absence of alternative solutions and the imminence of war, that is an inexplicably hardline position. Besides, Ethiopia is one of a number of African countries that have signed away aspects of their sovereignty to China. In announcing the award, the Nobel Committee also cited Ahmed’s efforts to resolve ethnic conflicts in his own country, the military-civilian stalemate in Sudan and the tension between Kenya and Somalia.

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