NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Razorbacks, Commodores Shake Things Up in SEC

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NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Razorbacks, Commodores Shake Things Up in SEC
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The Arkansas Razorbacks will win the battles in the trenches as well as the war on the scoreboard vs. the Mississippi Rebels, per Jason Ence. He's also got his eye on another SEC upset in Week 10 as Vanderbilt visits Auburn.

The Arkansas Razorbacks will win the battles in the trenches as well as the war on the scoreboard vs. the Mississippi Rebels, per Jason Ence. He's also got his eye on another SEC upset in Week 10 as Vanderbilt visits Auburn.I’ll look to get back to my winning ways in Week 10 as I bring you three more underdogs with excellent chances to pull off the upset on Saturday, November 2.is a simple one — keep Luke Altmyer clean, and the offense will do enough to win.

That can be offset with a solid run game, as the Gophers are giving up 4.4 yards per carry in conference play. Iowa beat Minnesota with 272 rushing yards compared to just 62 through the air. And Michigan nearly beat the Gophers following a similar script. Illinois has played a tougher schedule and has the more proven quarterback. Altmyer has a 113.4 rating when operating from a clean pocket, and Minnesota’s lack of pressure will be its downfall. The Gophers have the worst third-down defense in the conference, and they’ll be unable to get enough stops to keep Illinois from getting the win.

The Razorbacks won’t be the best front unit Dart has faced this season, but they had four sacks last week in a 58-25 win over Mississippi State. They got to Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava four times as well in their upset win, and notched three sacks against Texas A&M in their rivalry loss. And the Hogs have posted their two best PFF pass rush grades the last three weeks, including an 84.1 score last week.

Russell ran for 175 yards on 16 carries last week, and gained 62 yards on eight carries against Tennessee. With nine explosive runs from just 43 carries, he’s a threat to hurt the Rebels at any time behind an offensive line averaging 3.2 line yards per rush. The Hogs rank 11th in EPA/run, and they’ll present a serious test to this Mississippi defense.

In fact, the Commodores lead all SEC teams in conference play with a 47.4% success rate on third downs, while Auburn is middle of the pack allowing opponents to convert on better than 40% of their attempts. Vanderbilt’s offensive line has given up only four sacks to SEC opponents, and Pavia has the scrambling ability to negate Auburn’s pressure.

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