Consumer price disinflation stalled at the beginning of the year in Europe and the United States.
With the tailwinds of energy price deflation fading, core inflation, which is still high, now accounts for almost all of the price increases in the United States. This is less true in the euro area and the United Kingdom, where food inflation still contributed almost a third to headline inflation in January. The decline in inflation in 2023 has led, in all areas, to a downward shift in household inflation expectations in the short-term towards long-term expectations .
Chart of the month: The importance of services inflation Since June 2023,US inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change of the BLS’s CPI, has stopped declining: it was 3% in June 2023, and it was still 3.2% in February 2024. Over the same period, disinflation was more pronounced in the euro area , but since the end of 2023 it has also tended to come to a halt. The fact that energy deflation plays less negatively explains this slowdown in disinflation.
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