Big elections across the country Tuesday will provide answers to important questions about the political environment heading into 2024.
People gather in the parking lot of the Hamilton County Board of Elections as people arrive for early in-person voting in Ohio. | Carolyn Kaster/APis still potent. A tight battle for control of the Virginia legislature that will send early signals about the suburban vote. Gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Mississippi that will challenge Democrats’ ability to win despite the unpopular Joe Biden.
Democrats in just about every race elsewhere have run campaigns focused on abortion, from blue-ish Virginia to battleground Pennsylvania and even red Kentucky.In the Virginia legislative races, it has been the dominant issue. Democratic television ads mentioned abortion about 2.5 times as frequently as the party’s second most talked about issue, education, according to data from the advertising tracking firm AdImpact.
There have been early warning signs for Democrats that this crucial constituency may not give Biden the support he needs next year. Republicans flipped Louisiana’s governorship in an open-seat race earlier this year, when Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry won a surprise outright victory in October instead of having to duke it out in a runoff.
One particularly important race to watch is the Mississippi governor’s contest. The Magnolia State has the highest proportion of Black residents of any state — roughly 38 percent — and that bloc has historically supported Democrats in statewide contests in a state where voting is very racially polarized.
Most GOP campaign operatives agree that was a major tactical blunder. Republicans running this year have changed their tune, but can they actually alter the way Republican voters see it?and “secure your vote” — by voting early. With bus tours and targeted advertising, Youngkin pushed Republicans to vote before Election Day.
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