Trump’s election gift to China?

For China, at least, US President Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. His calamitous response to the Covid-19 pandemic has made China, whose government mishandled the initial outbreak in January, look like an exemplar of effective governance. Moreover, Trump’s “America First” foreign policy has alienated traditional US allies, making it difficult to build a broad coalition to counter China.

Recent opinion polls point to a clear victory for Trump’s democratic challenger, former vice-president Joe Biden. But the presidential race is likely to tighten, and – even if Trump trails Biden in the overall popular vote – the outcome in the battleground states that will determine the winner in the Electoral College could be too close to call on election night.

If he follows through on his threats to defy the will of US voters, the appeal of American democracy to people living under dictatorships, including in China, will be eviscerated. If heavily armed far-right militia groups engage in large-scale voter intimidation and deadly clashes occur around the US on Nov 3, China’s state-controlled media will gleefully beam such apocalyptic scenes into every Chinese household.

Worse still, the country could be plunged into political civil war if he wins a second term through massive voter suppression, dubious political manoeuvres by Republican-controlled legislatures in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida, partisan rulings by Trump-appointed judges and justices, and outright abuse of executive authority.

At the very least, further intensification of partisan polarisation will make it impossible for America to rebuild its strength at home through catch-up investments in health care, education, scientific research, clean energy and infrastructure, all of which are urgently needed to sustain the country’s competitive advantage over China.

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