Federal Reserve Board building on Constitution Avenue is pictured in Washington DC, March 19, 2019. — Reuters pic
Frayed nerves on both sides of the Pacific have begun to ease after President Donald Trump last month called a truce in his China trade war, and trade relations within North America have resolved as well, with the signing of a new continental pact. Both the economy and policy are “in a good place,” as Fed number two Richard Clarida said in a speech this month.
Futures markets have taken that expectation to the bank. As of Friday, they predicted the Fed will not resume cutting interest rates until September at the earliest.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled in December the central bank is keeping an eye on “global developments,” a veiled reference to China’s slowdown and the Brexit saga.
Forecasts for 2020 now call for growth of around two per cent, slower than last year, which was slower than 2018.The American manufacturing slump continues with no end in sight — despite Trump’s promises to revive industry. Consumer spending softened toward the end of 2019 and so did increases in worker pay, while hiring in 2019 was the slowest in eight years.
While Trump has for now buried the hatchet with Beijing, tariffs remain in place on two-thirds of the products traded between the economic powers.
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