Can life return to normal after Covid-19?

These past weeks have been tough for all of us, especially as it is hard for us to see an end to the coronavirus outbreak. Many of us wish we had a reset button that could make this all disappear. We wish that we could wake up from this nightmare and realise that it was all just a dream.

We cannot continue indefinitely with some form of lockdown. If the epidemic continues, we will reach an impasse, a time when the lockdown will become more than we can tolerate. We are speaking not just of economic loss but of the poor dying from starvation, many dying from other diseases and some dying from despair .

Some believe that Wuhan is gradually returning to normality, and that we will also be able to do the same. Remember that the estimated number infected in Wuhan is 500,000, out of a population of about 11 million people. Hence, the percentage infected is only about 4.5%, hardly enough to achieve herd immunity. Wuhan still has the capacity to have large outbreaks and they are far from achieving a normal life.This strategy, a dramatic one, will require an intensive, coordinated effort.

There are also unresolved issues. Will immunity post-infection and recovery last long term or can we be re-infected? How many deaths will we experience among adults aged 20-60 if we implement this exit strategy? A very conservative estimate is about 50,000 deaths. It seems we have a “no-win” situation on our hands.This is not an easy option and will require strict discipline from every person in the country for it to work.

In this strategy, we want to echo the truth that Jonathan Smith, an infectious disease epidemiologist, articulates: “You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit: if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk.” Once one family member is infected, all are at high risk of infection. So we will have to work as family units.

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