Analysis: Patchwork fixes to Ukraine grain shortfall leave world vulnerable a year into war

Extensive damage to Ukraine's farm sector and uncertainty that the UN's grain export corridor deal will be renewed this month suggest food prices may remain elevated, increasing the potential of hunger if other problems arise, agriculture experts warn.

"The world has had some time to patch some holes," said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co in Chicago, citing larger-than-anticipated Russian wheat exports and the grain export corridor deal that allowed some 3 million tonnes of grain per month to be exported from Ukraine's Black Sea ports. But prices are likely to remain volatile this year, particularly during planting and key crop development phases, as global grain stocks remain tighter than normal.

"The world is looking to the other breadbaskets ... to make up for some of this gap," said Ken Seitz, CEO of the world's biggest fertilizer producer, Nutrien Ltd, in an interview. The Black Sea grain export initiative will be key to determining global grain supplies going forward, analysts said.

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