RURAL and lower income Malays are more inclined towards Perikatan Nasional (PN) parties than Pakatan Harapan (PH), according to a study last year by the Merdeka Centre in the months after the change of government.

The study, carried out between March 12 and August 21, 2020, was aimed at understanding voters’ political inclination by asking a series of questions on race-based politics and inter-ethnic power sharing.

It found that lower income rural Malays preferred PN, while higher income urbanites chose PH.

The findings were presented to a political party recently and were sighted by The Malaysian Insight.

The Merdeka Centre said the overall inclination for PN parties (67.6%) was higher than PH (21.6%).

However, the study does not take into account Umno’s rejection of the PN coalition in the next election.

Umno only formalised the decision during its general assembly in March this year, while the study was launched soon after PN toppled PH and took over Putrajaya after the Sheraton Move in late February last year.

For the purpose of the study, the 1,251 respondents were divided into five groups based on location (rural vs urban), ethnicity, income levels and types of employment.

The study defined the five groups as:

• Group 1: Malay, self-employed, rural, male, aged above 40 with a household income of RM3,000;
• Group 2: Malay, mixed gender, self-employed, rural, aged above 40 with a household income of RM3,000;
• Group 3: Malay, mixed gender, private sector or business, rural, middle aged with a household income of RM3,000;
• Group 4: mixed race comprising 66% Malay and 34% non-Malay, mixed gender, private sector or self-employed, semi-urban and rural, aged below 40 with low- and middle-incomes;
• Group 5: 86% non-Malay, mixed gender, aged above 40, with high incomes.

“Groups 1 and 2 (Malay, rural, lower income) were not receptive of ethnic diversity and multi-ethnic party coalitions,” said Merdeka Centre.

The pollsters said that 91% of Group 1 and 88% of Group 2 preferred PN.

“Meanwhile, groups 3 and 4 are positioned in the middle ground in terms of acceptance of multi-ethnic parties.

“Seventy-five percent of Group 3 supported PN, while 15% picked PH. In Group 4, 61% preferred PN, while 23% were PH supporters.”

“Group 5 (urban and higher income), on the other hand, is very much supportive of ethnic diversity and equal inter-ethnic partnership in politics.

“Fifty-six percent of Group 5 preferred PH, while 22% picked PN,” said the Merdeka Centre.

Among the questions asked were what they thought of a coalition of all Malay parties, a coalition of non-Malay parties, a coalition of parties representing all races with a Malay party having the final say on politics and a coalition of parties representing all races with each having equal say in national policies.

Other questions included whether Malaysians should develop a new political narrative that is not based on race and religion, and whether minorities can decide in matters that conflict with the racial and religious majority.

Bersatu lowest among Perikatan parties

Meanwhile, the study also showed that Bersatu, at the time, had the lowest voter support among the parties in the PN government.

According to the Merdeka Centre study, Bersatu averaged 12.4% in voter inclination across the five different voter groups compared to Barisan Nasional (BN) and PAS.

The highest average was BN at 31.6% followed by PAS (22.8%).

Bersatu at the time was split between its co-founders former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his successor Muhyiddin Yassin, who took the party out of PH to form the Malay-Muslim majority PN coalition.

In the PH coalition, DAP registered the highest voter inclination, averaging 11% compared with PKR (7.2%) and Amanah (2%).

The study was presented to lawmakers during a PH retreat last month.

According to Merdeka Centre, the study involved face-to-face interviews with 1,251 respondents across Peninsular Malaysia in 165 constituencies and had a survey margin error of 2.77%. – May 7, 2021.