Room for debate on these issues arises from disagreements of two sorts: about facts and about values. On the facts side, important but not entirely settled questions include:
How deadly is it? In a recent meta-study for the Bulletin of the WHO, John Ioannidis of Stanford looks at 61 studies in which “seroprevalence estimates” of population infection rates ranged from 0.02 per cent to 53.40 per cent, while “infection fatality rates” ranged from 0.00 per cent to 1.63 per cent.
How stressed is health care? Last spring our strategy was to control the virus so as to prevent Italian-style overflowing emergency wards . How are emergency wards doing now? And how much capacity did they add over the summer? France gives almost real-time, by region, of how many people are in hospital, in the ICU and on ventilators. By contrast, the focus in this country on the number of new cases — of whatever severity — diverts attention from what should be a, maybe the key, metric.
As for values, we each have our own views on just how to weight widespread business failures or growing long-term unemployment or missed cancer diagnoses or upticks in suicide against earlier deaths for old folks or permanent COVID complications for any young people who do get hit. These are all values questions. They are inherently debatable and no expert can divine the answer.
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