War in Ukraine: Is Putin waiting for the Beijing Winter Olympics to begin?

The last thing Xi would need is for Putin to overshadow China’s big moment by triggering a global security crisis with the U.S. and Europe, analysts say. That’s especially the case given Xi is looking to bolster his prestige at home as he seeks endorsement for an unprecedented third term later this year.

But kicking off an invasion of Ukraine in the middle of Xi’s Olympic moment could throw a wrench into such warmth, and risk drawing China into the diplomatic fray. It’s possible Xi asked Putin in their recent call not to invade Ukraine during the Games, according to one diplomat in Beijing who asked not to be identified talking about such scenarios.

That’s a window spanning from Jan. 28 to March 20, when eastern Ukraine’s frozen winter landscape begins to turn to cloying mud in spring thaws that military analysts in Moscow and the West believe would hinder a rapid Russian incursion. The China-sponsored UN resolution was adopted by consensus last month, with Russia’s representative urging all nations to observe the truce.

While Russia’s less likely to launch a full-scale invasion immediately, it may opt for a more limited incursion into Ukraine around mid-February, two people familiar with recent Western assessments said. Other actions including cyber attacks and attempts to destabilize Ukraine could take place in parallel or precede an intervention. That assessment doesn’t mean a larger invasion is out of the question, as Western allies have repeatedly said they don’t know Putin’s intentions.

Days after Putin hosted the closing ceremony of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, on which he’d spent a record $50 billion to stage the Games, Russian forces began their operation to annex Crimea from Ukraine. Russia has little incentive to antagonize China, its largest trading partner with total trade of $112 billion in 2020 and a giant consumer of Russian energy and minerals. China was the single biggest importer of Russian coal, buying more than 29 million tons in 2020 or 15% of total exports, according to the RBC news site.

NK BUSY step one -

will take the spotlight away from China

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