U.S. fears Canada-India row over Sikh activist’s killing could upend strategy for countering China

A man rides a bike outside the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara Sahib in Surrey, British Columbia, on Sept. 18, 2023.The Biden administration is nervously watching a dispute between Canada and India, with some officials concerned it could upend the U.S. strategy toward the Indo-Pacific that is directed at blunting China’s influence there and elsewhere.

Behind the scenes, U.S. officials say they believe Trudeau’s claims are true. And they are worried that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be adopting tactics to silence opposition figures on foreign soil akin to those used by Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and North Korea, all of which have faced similar accusations.

Aside from countering Russia’s war in Ukraine, the administration has been most focused on dealing with China as a competitor and the potential international threat it poses. To that end it has boosted its diplomatic efforts in the Indo-Pacific, including by creating a leaders group that brings together Australia, Japan, India and the United States. President Joe Biden has hailed the formation of the so-called Quad as a key part of that effort.

Shortly after Trudeau made public his allegations last month and expelled a senior Indian diplomat, U.S. officials began to fret over the possibility that Canada might decide to go “full Skripal” with mass diplomatic expulsions and make requests, as the British did in 2018, of its allies to do the same.

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