U.S. President Donald Trump has taken to Twitter several times in the last several days to voice his displeasure with the Federal Reserve.Interest rate futures traders believe the U.S. Federal Reserve will bow to President Donald Trump’s persistent tweets pressuring the central bank to lower interest rates, and this poses a “significant” risk to Fed independence, according to research released on Monday.
In a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper titled, Duke’s Francesco Bianchi and London Business School’s Howard Kung and Thilo Kind found Trump’s tweets lowered market-based expectations for the central bank’s interest rate policy by a tenth of a percentage point.
Given that when the Fed does change interest rates, it typically does so in quarter-point increments, the tenth of a point effect on market expectations is significant, they said. Their finding contrasts with the results of two recent Reuters polls, one of American voters and the other of global economists, which found respondents saying they see little impact on the Fed from Trump’s pressure.
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