Nearly two-thirds of the party's national delegates are up for grabs in a 30-day time period starting with Saturday's South Carolina primary. The biggest prizes come on Tuesday, when 1,344 delegates will be at stake in 14 states and American Samoa.
"Starting with Super Tuesday, we shift from the momentum race to the delegate race," Virginia Tech political scientist Caitlin Jewitt said in an email. She said during the next month, "if Sanders can rapidly amass delegates and expand his delegate lead, it is more likely that his competitors will begin to see his nomination as inevitable and withdraw from the race."
Democrats award delegates proportionally, and candidates must get at least 15% of the vote, either statewide or in individual congressional districts, to win delegates. The system rewards top candidates in a crowded field and then makes it hard to catch them once the field shrinks. Buttigieg's campaign is already conceding defeat on Super Tuesday, saying the map, which includes huge states such as California and Texas, favours Sanders. In a memo to supporters this week, Buttigieg campaign manager Mike Schmuhl said the campaign's goal is to keep Sanders from building an insurmountable lead.
If one candidate builds a big delegate lead, the same proportional system that helped the front-runner build that lead in a crowded field makes it hard to catch him or her as the field narrows. That's because even if the front-runner loses a contest, he or she is still likely to win a significant number of delegates. This is what happened in 2008, when Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton in a primary battle that lasted until June.
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