Russia-Ukraine crisis: Severe sanctions could trigger crippling Moscow response

2022-01-28 2:35:00 PM

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Severe sanctions could trigger crippling Moscow response via @nbcnews

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Russia-Ukraine crisis: Severe sanctions could trigger crippling Moscow response via nbcnews

The U.S. is threatening painful sanctions against Russia if it attacks Ukraine. But Moscow could use its oil and gas to inflict economic pain on the West.

If Russia carried out a major cutback on gas deliveries, European countries would have to consider rationing and governments would have to decide how much they were willing to share gas and energy resources with their neighbors.“To ensure Europe is able to make it through the winter and spring, we expect to be prepared to ensure alternative supplies covering a significant majority of the potential shortfall,” a senior administration official told reporters Tuesday.

The U.S. has had to accept the harsh reality that introducing hard-hitting financial sanctions on Russia carries risks, but sacrifices are necessary to deter Moscow, Fried said. “Your risk tolerance has to go up when you’re talking about a land war in Europe,” he said.

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Russia and Ukraine agree to continue ceasefire talksRussian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed that a permanent ceasefire in eastern Ukraine must be observed 'unconditionally' following hours-long talks in Paris on Wednesday.

Trudeau cabinet mulls new Russia-Ukraine moves as U.S. suggests new export controlsThe Liberal government's cabinet retreat wraps later today with pressure mounting on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to take substantive new action on addressing the Ukraine-Russia crisis. JustinTrudeau melaniejoly Did Mélanie Joly go to Russia yet? They invited her. She she go if she hasn’t and try to convince Putin to just have a vodka and relax - Russia could easily conquer Ukraine in a week or two, but that won't happen because of the reasons given here, by a confidante of Putin 👇. NATO has no troops nearby, and NATO is too divided to act. But, no war will occur. Western leaders vote hunting. - For Germany!, Croatia!, Hungary! & Italy who all flirt with Putin & his thugs I propose 45 years of Russian boots & tanks & autocracy. If they want to do business with the dictator let them all live under his boots. They all take for granted the US & NATO freedom & security!

Russia threatens ‘retaliatory measures’ if Ukraine demands are not met - National | Globalnews.ca“If the West continues its aggressive course, Moscow will take the necessary retaliatory measures,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday.

Russia, China testing American commitments to the independence of Ukraine and TaiwanThe value of American commitments and those of its allies, including Canada, to the independence of Ukraine and Taiwan is what is being tested by Russia and China. In any worthwhile endeavour, committing to a relationship means doing whatever it takes to establish a secure base and to resolve any problems that threaten the security, safety, and well-being of the relationship. With respectful assertiveness we ultimately define our commitment

US offers no concessions in response to Russia on UkrainePresidential advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany reached no breakthrough in talks over the long-running Ukraine conflict Wednesday, but promised to meet for new talks in two weeks in Berlin.

Russia threatens retaliation if Ukraine demands not met | National NewswatchNational Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views. Make it a daily habit.

Bloomberg News reported.Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed that a permanent ceasefire in eastern Ukraine must be observed "unconditionally" following hours-long talks in Paris on Wednesday.The options could see Canada joining its NATO allies in imposing export controls on Russia to deprive it of sensitive technology related to artificial intelligence, which is being actively considered by the United States.Ukraine , raising pressure on the West amid concerns that Moscow is planning to invade its neighbor.

Russia has cut off gas supplies before, but only briefly during disputes with Ukraine. In 2009, gas supplies were shut down for nearly two weeks in wintertime, forcing Slovakia and some Balkan countries to ration gas and cut power supplies. Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop build-up near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics -- spurring fears that Russia could launch an invasion. If Russia carried out a major cutback on gas deliveries, European countries would have to consider rationing and governments would have to decide how much they were willing to share gas and energy resources with their neighbors. Ukrainian Canadians, and the Ukrainian government in Kyiv, are asking Canada to provide weapons to the Ukraine military, impose further sanctions on Russia and extend Canada's military training mission of its forces beyond its expiry date at the end of March. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and seized the Crimean peninsula, the Obama administration chose to avoid large-scale sanctions against Moscow, partly because of fears that Russia could wage economic warfare of its own by exploiting vast oil and gas reserves, according to former officials. Western officials are continuing to push for a diplomatic solution to the tensions through the full implementation of the Minsk agreements -- a ceasefire protocol signed by Ukraine and Russia in 2015. But Biden administration officials say they are confident that natural gas producers will be able to ramp up production to help offset any Russian attempt to squeeze supply. At stake is the future of Ukraine: Russia has demanded guarantees that NATO will never admit the country and other ex-Soviet nations as members and that the alliance will roll back troop deployments in other former Soviet bloc nations.

“To ensure Europe is able to make it through the winter and spring, we expect to be prepared to ensure alternative supplies covering a significant majority of the potential shortfall,” a senior administration official told reporters Tuesday. He added that the "obligation" to implement such agreements "lies with the armed forces of Ukraine and the armed formations of the (eastern separatists) Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. U. The official noted that Russia has already cut by half the customary level of gas supplies flowing to Europe through Ukraine. The official’s comments are “a way of sending a message to Putin: We know what you might do, and we’re prepared for that,” said Dan Fried, a former career diplomat who crafted sanctions policy and now works at the Atlantic Council think tank. Yermak called the renewal of the Normandy Format talks -- first held after Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea -- a "very positive signal" and the first such substantive agreement since the end of 2019. The U. "In addition to financial sanctions, which have immediate and visible effect on the day they're implemented, we're also prepared to impose novel export controls that would deal Putin a weak strategic hand over the medium term," said one senior U.S. "The work continues and I can tell you that Ukraine as usual is ready to negotiate, to meet 24-7.S.

has had to accept the harsh reality that introducing hard-hitting financial sanctions on Russia carries risks, but sacrifices are necessary to deter Moscow, Fried said. “Your risk tolerance has to go up when you’re talking about a land war in Europe,” he said. Kozak and Yermak said the talks would resume in about two weeks in Berlin. Read more: A timeline of major events leading up to the current Russia-Ukraine crisis The official said export controls are effective because they leverage "the global dominance of U. As one of the world’s largest oil producers, Russia could also slow down oil production and cause a spike in oil prices, a step that could aggravate inflation in the global economy and jack up gasoline prices for Americans. Oil is Russia’s most lucrative export, and Moscow would have to weigh the consequences of any cut in production. Russia has repeatedly denied it is planning an invasion but has argued that NATO support for Ukraine -- including increased weapons supplies and military training -- constitutes a growing threat on its western flank. U. "The export control options we're considering alongside our allies and partners would hit Putin's strategic ambitions to industrialize his economy quite hard," said the U. He mocked fears of an imminent invasion, saying that “our Western colleagues have driven themselves up into a militarist frenzy,” adding sardonically that “the Ukrainian elite itself has grown a bit scared by the Western scare.

S. Medvedev said a process of negotiations on security guarantees is the only way to settle the current tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the West. officials argue that even though Europe depends heavily on Russian gas, Moscow also needs the revenue from the gas sales, and that cutting off gas shipments would hurt its own financial position. The senior administration official said that “if Russia decides to weaponize its supply of natural gas or crude oil, it wouldn’t be without consequences to the Russian economy. "They say that 'we did not sign anything. "And it would impair areas that are of importance to him.” “Remember, this is a one-dimensional economy, and that means it needs oil and gas revenues at least as much as Europe needs its energy supply,” the official said. In the last several months, Europe already has experienced shortfalls in Russian gas supplies." Medvedev added: "Everything must be done to avoid any war. ordered 8,500 troops on higher alert for potential deployment to Europe.

Although Russia has fulfilled long-term contracts and delivered enough gas to keep homes heated and factories operating, the overall flow of gas has declined, storage supplies have dwindled, and prices have hit record levels. Ottawa followed its allies on another key move on Tuesday by ordering the children and family members of its embassy staff in Ukraine to leave the country. Western officials and industry analysts say Russia is clearly flexing its muscle to signal its leverage over energy. Putin's central demand is that the US and NATO commit to never admitting Ukraine to the 30-member defence alliance. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, blamed Russia this month for record-high energy prices in Europe, saying Russia’s state-owned gas company Gazprom had sent 25 percent less gas than usual to Europe. But Moscow denies there has been any deliberate bid to scale back shipments." "There is no change. State Department decided to order the families of its Ukraine embassy personnel to leave. With Russia facing potentially harsh financial sanctions and restrictions on U. residential school site Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that while the concentration of Russian troops near Ukraine poses a threat, “their number is now insufficient for a large-scale offensive.

S. "We make clear that there are core principles that we are committed to uphold and defend, including Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the right of states to choose their own security arrangements and alliances," he added.-made technology if it attacks Ukraine, and with the West facing a possible energy crisis in the middle of winter, the question is who would blink first. The advisory now suggests Canadians who are in Ukraine consider leaving. Compared to 2014, the last time Russia launched an invasion into Ukraine, Moscow’s economy is in a stronger position thanks to high oil prices and a record level of foreign currency reserves, including gold, totaling $620 billion. RELATED IMAGES. “The reality is that today you have a situation in which Russia is much more prepared to weather significant sanctions than they were in 2014,“ Smith said. Drawing on its reserves, Russia would be able to sustain a certain degree of financial damage from U. RELATED IMAGES. Story continues below advertisement His comments were latest from Ukrainian officials seeking to reassure their citizens.

S. sanctions. But for how long? Prolonged spikes in energy prices and gas shortages could make it difficult for leaders in Western democracies to maintain sanctions on Russia, as voters might demand a change in course to ease the pressure on their costs of living. But Russian President Vladimir Putin, who presides over an autocratic system with no genuine political opposition, doesn’t have to answer to popular pressure. Russia might be able to tolerate a protracted economic downturn longer than adversaries in the West, some experts said. Several rounds of high-stakes diplomacy have failed to yield any breakthroughs, but another attempt was going forward Wednesday.

“Russia has a reasonable expectation that consumer democracies very well might find that their pain point comes sooner, because of their political systems and their reliance on energy,” Book said. Dan De Luce .