Peter Hall: Why the Bank of Canada should ignore the July inflation spike

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The rate-hikes potion seems to be working and too much can be lethal

accelerated to 3.3 per cent in July from 2.8 per cent in June, despite a staggering numbers of rate hikes since early 2022., but not by that much. Pundits chorused that on balance the inflation report was bad news for the central bank, and that it increased the odds of more hikes to come. Were they right?

It’s not alone. The clothing and footwear category has tumbled by 2.8 per cent in the past two months. Meanwhile, health-care costs have flatlined. About a quarter of the basket has already taken a hard hit from higher borrowing costs. The eye-popping number isn’t a result of some dated anomaly in the data. Monthly growth is still at a breakneck pace, on an annualized double-digit streak that is into its fourteenth month. At present, the annualized monthly increase is averaging 24 per cent.

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