Dollar Rally Has HSBC Flipping View, Seeing Gains Through 2024

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HSBC Holdings Plc has made a u-turn on its dollar forecast, predicting the world’s reserve currency will now strengthen well into next year given weaker global economic prospects.

The greenback should gain as faltering growth in Europe and China weigh on risk sentiment and drive demand for assets linked to the US economy, HSBC strategists wrote in a report. Every major currency has slid against the greenback during the past month, with emerging-market heavyweights such as the yuan and the Indian rupee slumping close to record lows.

A resurgent US currency has spurred dollar bears to reassess their bets on everything from the Australian dollar to the yen. Even as the global outlook turns bleaker, the US will look relatively more appealing and the dollar can withstand any Federal Reserve policy easing cycle, in HSBC’s view. The bank now sees the euro falling to 1.03 per dollar in the first quarter of 2024, compared with a prior estimate of 1.15. The yen may weaken to 148 per dollar in the same period, a marked flip from its earlier call of 132.


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