The Canadian Real Estate Association says there will be more housing sales this year than it previously forecast because of population and job growth and a decline in long-term mortgage rates.
The western downswing will be more than offset by expected gains of 8.3 per cent in Ontario and 9.7 per cent in Quebec, CREA said.“In recent months, home prices have generally been stabilizing in British Columbia and the Prairies, a measure which had been falling until recently,” CREA said. “Meanwhile, price growth has begun to rebound among markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region amid ongoing price gains in housing markets east of it.
Besides B.C., sales are also depressed in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, while Manitoba, Quebec and New Brunswick are expected to set new annual sales records, the association said. CREA projects the national average price to gain by 2.1 per cent next year to $501,400, remaining below its 2017 level.
“The recent marginal decline in the benchmark five-year interest rate used to assess homebuyers’ mortgage eligibility, together with lower home prices in some markets, means that some previously sidelined homebuyers have returned,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. “Even so, the mortgage stress-test will continue to limit homebuyers’ access to mortgage financing, with the degree to which it further weighs on home sales activity continuing to vary by region.
Just in time for Liberals to tax those principal residence gains.
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