Canada’s economy has ‘free money lying on the sidewalk’ and nobody is picking it up

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Kevin Carmichael: There are things Canada can do to revive the economy without spending more money or tempting households to taken on more debt

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On the days the Bank of Canada sets policy, my inbox fills with commentary from various economists and sundry currency analysts.

And that’s the problem. The central bank also raised its estimate of the economy’s non-inflationary speed limit to two per cent. The gap between that measure and the 2020 outlook suggests that Canada, despite its all-star potential, is performing like a third-liner. Corporate leaders may have discovered what complacency gets you: nothing. Business was a non-entity in last year’s election campaign, meaning every member of Parliament has a mandate to ignore the concerns of the hiring class if he or she desires.

In the fall, the Bank of Canada nudged finance ministers to do it. The Oct. 30 policy statement said officials would be paying particular attention to “fiscal policy developments.” If that was too ambiguous, Poloz told BNN Bloomberg later that day that $5 billion of fiscal stimulus was as good as a quarter-point cut in interest rates. The implication was that the central bank had been doing most of the work for years and that the time had come for others to help out.

“There is zero net incremental fiscal stimulus in Canada,” said Derek Holt, an economist at Bank of Nova Scotia, which has been calling for lower interest rates since the fall. “The onus is on the BoC to step up to the plate if stimulus is needed.”

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