Bring on the projections – and the caveats: COVID-19 models are a complicated truth

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Bring on the projections – and the caveats: COVID-19 models are a complicated truth GlobePolitics

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A senior government official insisted there was never any debate inside the federal government about making the models public. But it has taken weeks to collect enough useful data from the provinces, including information on how people get sick, to work up a robust model.

In the relative terms of this crisis, it is a good thing these grim forecasts are going to be released. They won’t really provide a firm answer to all questions Canadians have. But giving the public a sense that they’re being told what the government knows about what’s happening, and what might happen, is critical.

It would be hard to keep such projections secret for long, anyway. Leaks of secret death forecasts would certainly damage public trust. Mr. Ford, in announcing that grim figures will be released, told Ontarians, “You deserve the truth.” There is something reassuring about that. The number of cases of people being infected each day might already be declining as April begins, for all we know, but full statistics on that won’t be in for about two weeks. Health Canada reports numbers on infections by “episode date,” but also notes that figures from recent days are not yet complete.

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globepolitics It’s all okay. The government knows what’s best for us. Bwahaaahaaa!

globepolitics A better question is given that docs dealing with coronavirus have known for a month that it was aerosolized, why did it take media & governments until today to recognize that. Also people can be contagious for up to 20 days without symptoms. Plug that into a model!

globepolitics CBC posts deceptive graph using 'algorithmic scale' to make things look better. Here is a direct comparison to Japan...

globepolitics What's the benefit of citizens panicking over worst case scenarios?

globepolitics Or just watch european news network

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