338Canada: The very long odds for the PPC - Macleans.ca

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Philippe J. Fournier: The debate commission ruled Bernier's party has a legitimate shot at winning more than one seat. The 338Canada model suggests not.

Does a candidate from a small party polling at 10 to 15 per cent in a riding where both the Liberals and Conservatives are most likely polling at above 35 per cent each really have a reasonable chance to win?

The PPC does not meet the first criterion, as Maxime Bernier was elected in Beauce as a Conservative Party candidate. It does meet the second criterion, as it appears the PPC will run a full slate of candidate for the coming election. The matter was to determine whether Bernier’s party met the second half of the third criterion: “that candidates endorsed by the party have legitimate chance to be elected in the general election.

Pickering–Uxbridge is currently set as “Likely LPC”. Since the model’s official launch in 2017, “Likely” districts have been correctly called in 94 per cent of cases.

 

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Remember that this racist xenophobe who insults 16y old girls, used to be on team blue. In fact, he wanted to lead team blue, and whether rejected him, he started PPC. cdnpoli

Bernier represents the slimy underbelly of Canadian society-- the haters, supremacists and ignorants who think that government policies can be encapsulated in a naive, single, pithy sentence. He has a right to speak, but that's as far as I'll go.

Lawsome_ JustinTrudeau wanted him there. His strategy is not working very well. So the debate comm. invites Mad Max to beat up on Sheer. Now it's four against one. Not to mention the moderators.

I really really hope he surprises everyone. Like he won't get enough seats to come anywhere near being a contender for top 3. But I certainly hope he gets enough seats to scare the shit out of the people who are discounting him. I know I'm voting for him.

It is just Justin stacking the debate AGAIN!

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