NP View: The Cold War never ended for Putin. Trudeau should wake up to that reality

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For most people, the Cold War ended 30 years ago. But not for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has spent much of the intervening time cementing his hold on power and trying to regain the former Soviet empire, or at least hold the line against western encroachment into Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. The sooner Canada’s Liberal government and its allies come to realize this, the better equipped they will be to deal with the challenges of the 21st century.

In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine, annexing Crimea and some other parts of the country, with little resistance from NATO. This emboldened Putin, who has used the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to sow disinformation and discontent in the West, while amassing over 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine.

Now the West finds itself in an uncomfortable position. Standing idly by while Russian tanks roll into Kyiv would undermine NATO’s commitment to its allies and set a dangerous precedent, emboldening not only Russia, but also China, which has repeatedly threatened Taiwan in recent months. On the other hand, engaging Russia would mean entering into a hot war with a country that still has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world.

Current efforts at diplomacy largely hinge around Russia’s demand for a freeze on NATO expansion, which Washington and Brussels have rejected outright. Neither side seems very hopeful that a deal can be reached: British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said that there’s “a chance” that a Russian invasion can be prevented, but he’s “not optimistic” — a sentiment echoed by Putin’s press secretary, who said, “There is not much cause for optimism.”

Which makes it strange that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to pin all his hopes on a diplomatic solution. “We know that the solution to this tension must be diplomatic, not military,” he said at a press conference on Wednesday, where he announced that Canada would be providing Ukraine with defensive equipment — such as bullet-proof vests and night-vision goggles — but not weapons.

This is in line with the position taken by Germany, which has pledged to supply Ukraine with “non-lethal” aid, including field hospitals and helmets, but believes that sending weapons will “escalate” the situation. Yet it runs counter to the response taken by the United States, which has sent 180 tons of military hardware to Ukraine, and the United Kingdom, which has delivered 2,000 anti-tank weapons to the country over the past week.

The German response has been publicly criticized by Poland and Latvia, two eastern European NATO members for which Russian expansionism poses a direct threat. The allies are also split on whether sanctions are warranted at this time and if more troops should be sent to the region.

France, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands have already sent troops and equipment to bolster NATO battle groups that were deployed to neighbouring countries following Russia’s 2014 invasion. The U.S. also began deploying fighter jets to Lithuania and Estonia this week, and the U.K. has said it is willing to send reinforcements, as well.

Over the past week, the Ukrainian Embassy in Ottawa has released numerous statements pleading for the Trudeau government to send “military equipment,” expand our training mission and to impose “severe sectoral sanctions” on Russia. So far, however, all Trudeau has been willing to commit to is the extension of a $120-million loan — to be used for economic, not military purposes — and an additional 60 soldiers to help train the Ukrainian army, along with some non-lethal aid and cybersecurity assistance.

While this is a good start, it’s nowhere near the scale of what many of our allies are offering, even considering our smaller size. And it could also be too little, too late, given that Russian forces could enter the country any day now. But part of the problem Canada has is that we don’t have a lot to offer, even if we wanted to.

After being neglected for years, the Canadian military doesn’t have much to spare. Canada has still not replaced its aging CF-18 fighter jets, despite talking about it for years. Our naval fleet is in a state of disrepair and replacement ships won’t be ready for years to come. Our government can’t even manage to replace the Second World War-era sidearms carried by our troops.

If there were a political will in Ottawa, however, Canada could play a much greater role. We have a $10-million cache of small arms and anti-tank systems that were originally intended for the Kurds, but have been sitting on shelves for years. It should be immediately sent to Ukraine. Canada should also commit whatever troops it can spare to beef up existing NATO deployments in the region.

In all likelihood, western forces will not be called upon to engage Russia head-on. In fact, U.S. President Joe Biden explicitly ruled that out earlier this week. As in the Cold War, the West is likely to treat any invasion of Ukraine as a proxy war, supplying equipment and other assistance, while ensuring neighbouring NATO members are sufficiently protected. By acting now, Canada could help deter Russian aggression and ensure that we have enough forces in place, should the conflict escalate.

As it turns out, the challenges of the 21st century are very similar to those of the 20th. Putin knows this and has been preparing for years to take advantage of his distracted and divided opponents, who let down their guard years ago. The sooner Justin Trudeau wakes up to this reality, the better.

National Post