What Taleb gets wrong - and right - about bitcoin

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When bitcoin falls in terms of US dollars it doesn’t say much about whether it is cheap or expensive, but it suggests there’s more faith in the greenback.

Bitcoin has fallen 50 per cent since November. This is not unusual for the cryptocurrency; it did the same thing from April to July 2021, and quickly rebounded.

“For a contagion driven asset with no economic anchor such as #BTC, a falling price does not make it ‘cheaper’ and more attractive. A falling price makes it less desirableThis is not true empirically over bitcoin’s short history. In the past, buying bitcoin when the price was falling has been equally attractive as buying it when its price was rising. But Taleb made an economic claim, not a statistical one.

This is the world in which bitcoin was born and gained worldwide trust among technophiles, financially repressed people and people sceptical of government and banks.Bitcoin was a lifeboat for people thrown overboard by the government ship, and for everyone in case the traditional financial system’s lack of an anchor caused it to founder. Lifeboats don’t need anchors.

 

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