The alternative to a V-shaped recession is an L-shaped one. We fall down and thereafter growth is flat.“We think that business investment and residential construction will be sluggish right through 2021,” wrote senior economist Belinda Allen in a note to clients on Friday.
After they go through a grinding period of job losses and wealth destruction, people don’t go straight back to buying iPhone 10s and Ford Rangers.We’ll be milking out the battery life on that old iPhone 8, and watching the kilometres click up and up on our current car. That hurts the economy, because one person’s spending is another person’s income.
The Commonwealth Bank’s forecast of our economy has the level of GDP getting back to where it was in late 2022, as the next graph shows.Note that this is a different graph to the first graph. This shows the level of GDP, the IMF graph earlier showed the growth rate.
jasemurphy Jason. I don’t think we’ll get a V curve - note an increase in Bus Inv will take years as many SMEs are currently using $ surpluses or borrowing to fund the Job Seeker Payments - they won’t get this back for a few months so any pllanned inv (if any) will be pushed back.
jasemurphy Great piece today Jason!
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