We asked a panel of experts for the truth about the economy's health

30/06/2019 10:06:00 PM

#ANALYSIS: We asked a panel of experts for the truth about the economy's health

ANALYSIS: We asked a panel of experts for the truth about the economy's health

A panel of 20 leading economists from 12 universities across six states gives a frank assessment of the state of Australia's economy. The predictions are dire, writes Peter Martin.

Chris Edmond and Craig Emerson defend the 2 to 3 per cent inflation target saying that what is really concerning is the bank's preparedness to stay beneath the target band for extended periods.It is more optimistic on home building than the Treasury is, expecting housing investment to fall by 4.9 per cent rather than the Budget forecast of 7 per cent.

None of the panellists expects household spending to grow by the 2.75 per cent forecast in the Budget. On average, the panel expects spending growth of just 1.9 per cent in 2019-20, which is little better than the present 1.8 per cent and only few points above population growth.

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Isaac El Matari charged with planning a terror attack, being ISIS memberBreaking: Isaac El Matari charged with planning a terror attack, being ISIS member Why be so upset waleed will win the gold Logie next year. He's not Muslim I'm Muslim to never say Qur'an like this Qur'an say everytime help people don't make upset any people any animals any tree sorry for Australian people we have to much shit person Like fake Muslim people trying blackmailing me to because I'm used Simon in Australia

Alleged Islamic State terror plotter says 'we are terrorists': court docsIsaak el Matari, 20, charged with planning a terror attack once proclaimed himself the 'General Commander of Islamic State Australia', court documents allege | sallyrawsthorne sallyrawsthorne sallyrawsthorne I wouldn’t be surprised if more were around and locals joined or supported them - a lot goes on in the background. It doesn’t help that specific government related services are trying to manipulate & break people, turning them against humanity sallyrawsthorne Well, he is now a jail bird, bit of a come down for him.

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Mark Crosby, Warren Hogan and Mr Blundell-Wignall suggest broadening the target band to 1 to 3 per cent.Larger text size Very large text size One of two men charged with plotting a terror attack in Sydney was a “prominent” online extremist having joined Islamic State late last year, police allege.Larger text size Very large text size A 20-year-old man charged with planning a terror attack in the Sydney CBD proclaimed himself the "General Commander of Islamic State Australia" and created a stronghold in the Blue Mountains from which to conduct "guerilla-style" attacks, court documents allege.Amplification of climate change in the Arctic.

Tony Makin and Mr Stapledon suggest cutting it to 1 to 2 per cent. Richard Holden and Warwick McKibbin suggest ditching it altogether and replacing it with a target for nominal GDP growth. Mr Dakkak was arrested following raids on six Sydney properties on Tuesday by counter-terrorism police who also arrested 20-year-old Issak el Matari. Mr McKibbin suggests a nominal GDP target of 6 per cent, which given the present forecast for weaker nominal GDP growth would mean interest rate cuts. Credit: Facebook Mr el Matari also sent money offshore to import firearms, firearm parts and TNT (explosives) into Australia, the court documents allege, and operated a contingent of IS fighters for an alleged terrorist attack. In better times it would mean rate rises. Credit: Facebook Mr el Matari was on Wednesday charged with plotting a terror attack as well as also being a member of Islamic State. Chris Edmond and Craig Emerson defend the 2 to 3 per cent inflation target saying that what is really concerning is the bank's preparedness to stay beneath the target band for extended periods. For example, as snow and ice begin to melt, the surface darkens, allowing it to absorb more heat and thus melt even more.

Home prices The panel expects only modest falls in Sydney and Melbourne house prices of 2 to 3 per cent in each city after falls of 10 per cent over the past year. The pair had allegedly reached out to connections overseas in an attempt to obtain weapons and explosives to carry out the attacks. Loading He "answered the call of war", the documents continue, and was "talking about sacrificing himself for the IS cause". It is more optimistic on home building than the Treasury is, expecting housing investment to fall by 4.9 per cent rather than the Budget forecast of 7 per cent. Police raid Isaak El Matari's Greenacre home on Tuesday. Predictions for Sydney and Melbourne home prices, and housing investment, year to June 2020. He did not appear in court, with criminal lawyer Alistair Sinclair appearing on behalf of Mr el Matari’s solicitor Robert Stary. Business None of the panellists expects household spending to grow by the 2. Mr el Matawi had spent nine months in a Lebanese prison, accused of trying to get to Syria to fight for the Islamic State. That is the reality beginning to play out in Greenland.

75 per cent forecast in the Budget. On average, the panel expects spending growth of just 1. Home ­Affairs Minister Peter Dutton said the raids demonstrated why the government's proposed temporary exclusion order bill was "incredibly important" to Australians. This is not the first time Mr el Matari has come to authorities’ attention.9 per cent in 2019-20, which is little better than the present 1.8 per cent and only few points above population growth. Court documents filed during Mr Dakkak’s appearance on Wednesday revealed he allegedly joined Islamic State the week before Christmas last year and was a member until his arrest. Ms Dixon blames continuing weak growth in wages and incomes. Credit: James Brickwood He then spent nine months behind bars in Lebanon’s notorious and overcrowded Roumieh prison before returning to Australia. Given this variability, it is not yet clear whether 2019 is going to be an unusually bad year for melting over Greenland – and whether it will rival the worst year on record, 2012, when the entire surface of the ice sheet experienced melting.

Mr Stapledon said much of it flowed from the weaker housing market. Mr Dakkak was wearing prison greens and handcuffs during his brief appearance where he did not apply for bail and it was formally refused. Household furnishings drive household spending growth. Household spending drives GDP growth, accounting for more than half of it. Police raided the homes across Sydney's inner and south west, following a 12-month investigation. "[Terrorism] is not going away and it ­remains current, particularly when we’ve got Australians overseas in a theatre of war being trained by IS or ­inspired online and we want to deal with those people as best we can," Mr Dutton said. In better news, the panel expects mining investment to rebound after sliding for most of the last five years. Its forecasts of growth in mining investment of 4. As well as a domestic attack in Sydney, Mr El Matari is facing charges under the so-called foreign fighter legislation designed to stop Australians going to the Middle East to fight for ISIS. Greenland melt intensity over the past 350 years.

4 per cent, and growth in non-mining investment of 4 per cent, are in line with Budget forecasts. Since then, police have continued to monitor his activities both in person and online. Predictions for growth in household spending, mining and non-mining investment, 2019-20.. Interest rates and the Budget Perhaps surprisingly given its forecasts for weak employment growth, weak economic growth and weak inflation, the panel's average forecast for interest rates is for just one more cut, perhaps as soon as July 2, but some time in the second half of the year. Only five panellists expect a follow-up cut in the first half of next year, but among them are Craig Emerson, Richard Holden and Steve Keen, who were the only three to correctly forecast in January that there would be a rate cut at all this year. At the same time, investigators arrested alleged IS member Radwan Dakkak and alleged Centrelink defrauder Ahmed Tebya as they raided homes in Canada Bay, Green Valley, Toongabbie and Chester Hill. Mr Holden expects two further rate cuts in the second half of this year, taking the Reserve Bank cash rate to 0. According to the same study, that could potentially happen within 1,000 years.

75 per cent, and then a further two in the first half of next year, taking it to just 0.25 per cent. Mr Keen expects one further cut in the second half of this year and another two in the first half of next year, taking it to 0.5 per cent. Mr McKibbin is the only panellist expecting the Reserve Bank to change course, expecting one further cut this year and then a series of increases as ballooning debt makes the Reserve Bank and other central banks realise they cut too far, pushing the cash rate back up to 1. That is a choice we still have a chance to make.

5 per cent. Predictions for Reserve Bank cash rate, 10-year bond rate. The panel expects a government 10-year borrowing rate of just 1.5 per cent, which is about the lowest it has ever been. A year ago the 10-year bond rate was 2.

7 per cent. The ultra low rate will both make it easier for the Government to borrow and cut the cost of servicing its existing debt as loans are rolled over. In further good news for the Budget, the panel expects a substantially higher spot iron ore price than the government does, of $US95 a tonne by mid next year instead of the fall to $US55 assumed by the Treasury. .