Leading epidemiologist weighs in as Victoria awaits roadmap out of sixth lockdown
A leading epidemiologist has warned Victorians to temper their expectations ahead of the state government's roadmap reveal, saying case numbers will continue to shape the state's future.
Print text onlyPrintCancelA leading epidemiologist has warned Victorians should temper their expectations for increased freedoms as long as case numbers continue to grow, ahead of the state government's roadmap release.Key points:The state government will today release a roadmap charting Victoria's path through the coming months
Restrictions around outdoor gatherings were eased on Friday for vaccinated residentsA leading epidemiologist warns high vaccination figures alone won't be enough to relax restrictionsThe Victorian state government has remained optimistic in its language when referring to today's planned roadmap.
Health Minister Martin Foley said in a press conference yesterday that the roadmap was "a document that will drive hope, recovery and manage our way through what is still going to be a challenging period ahead."Premier Daniel Andrews assured that while the roadmap "won't answer every question", it would outline the next three months and beyond for Victorians. headtopics.com
"It'll be a meaningful document and it'll give people a really clear sense of what we're working towards," Mr Andrews said.The roadmap's release follows Victoria reaching it's first vaccination target of 70 per cent of residents inoculated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine.
However, debate swirled during the week over the potential relaxing of COVID restrictions, with some medical professionals warning opening up before the state is ready will lead to unnecessary deaths.until two weeks after 80 per cent of people aged 12 years and older were fully vaccinated.
In contrast,for increased freedoms for fully vaccinated people.Expert says Victoria not ready to open upProfessor Nancy Baxter says Victorians shouldn't expect too many additional liberties at 70 per cent vaccination.(Supplied: University of Melbourne
)Head of the School of Population and Global Health at Melbourne University, Nancy Baxter, said although Victorians do want encouragement, any serious relaxing of restrictions would have adverse effects on the state's fight against COVID-19.Professor Baxter said the fatigue of length restrictions may have some expecting far more than the roadmap will provide. headtopics.com
"People are really very, very tired of lockdown and want some gain, something to be improving with the improving vaccination rate," she said."But the problem is the more mixing we do, the more we'll drive the outbreak, and we don't yet have enough people vaccinated where that will control the outbreak. We have to control it ourselves."
In August,Professor Baxter warned any lessening of restrictions would see case numbers grow tenfoldfrom 70 a day to 700 a day.Less than one month on, Victoria is recording a daily case total of over 500, and Professor Baxter said the situation could again escalate.
"If we don't stay lockdown, this could get into the thousands of cases. And if we're in the thousands of cases, we can't open up when we're at 80 per cent vaccinated. We'll be still overwhelmed."While New South Wales has increased freedoms for fully vaccinated people, Professor Baxter said full vaccination is not an immediate solution to growing case numbers.
"The reality is if we allow more movement, even if it's just among vaccinated people, our case numbers will go up."She said the state government's narrative shift away from case numbers towards vaccination figures was not wholly helpful when assessing the pandemic. headtopics.com
"I'm not really aware of jurisdictions that have opened while case numbers have been increasing. It's just not something that is usually done."So I think this focusing just on the number of people vaccinated, it isn't the whole picture."
Professor Baxter believes the government will move forward with a slight relaxing of restrictions, if only for the psychological boon it would provide Victorians."I would say that almost certainly they'll give something, so they'll have some sort of relaxation," Professor Baxter said.
She saidthe introduction of picnics for fully vaccinated Victorianswas an example of a small trade off."There's just the feeling that we're going to be more likely to comply with restrictions in general, if we have this one little thing. And that overall it's better to have us complying with almost all the restrictions and have this one little thing then have us going against the rules all the time."
The Victorian state government remains committed to followingthe plan set out by national cabinet, hinging its major decisions on a target of 80 per cent of eligible people being fully vaccinated.However, Professor Baxter believes while vaccination is important, the threat of COVID does not disappear when the figure is reached.
"Eighty per cent double vaccinated means 20 per cent of people are not protected, and that's a large number of people. Delta will find them," she said."We have done great in Australia. We've had some challenges now, but when you compare us to the rest of the world, we have done great."
Professor Baxter said regardless of the roadmap announcements, high levels of vaccination mean opening up was within reach of the community."Honestly, as Australians, we need to hold it together for weeks more. I'm not even talking for six months more, I'm talking weeks more," she said.
"We've just got to hold it together a little bit longer."Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.WatchDuration: 4 minutes 34 seconds Read more: ABC News »
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Why do you continue to platform these people with no interrogation? defundtheabc Maybe they should ask who funds her? This is the first question and a disclosure piece. But any decent journalist would know that right? It’s ok to be funded, just important to under stand the bias. Once again Victorians lied to and bullied by a totalitarian government who refuse to properly fund mental health. As FionaPattenMLC pointed out in parliament mental health workers paid less than those managing DanielAndrewsMP social media image
This is terrible journalism. You’re doing the country a disservice with these types of articles Leading means nobody These people should be held to account when this 911 version 02 is over. For the death and harm to our people and our economy. There in no truth in our media any more, just a narrative of fear and lies to take away freedoms and human rights.
I can’t bear to hear this woman’s negativity. She might as well say that at 100% vaxxed it’s still dangerous to open up Ugh, we’re going to have too much influence from the COVIDzero Burnet Institute. So rather than looking at hospital capacity in directing the roadmap - it will be all about aiming for the unachievable COVIDzero again☹️
The harsh restrictions are counter-productive as people aren’t following the rules anymore. We need sensible and significant easing for the fully vaccinated. Also, this woman is sitting in Canada which opened at a fraction of our vaccination rates. She’s a political grifter. Don't need to be an expert to know that while there are people willing to put their own and family's health, life and livelihood at risk, then lie about where they've been, don't care if the numbers go up. With some it's not just their wants but deliberate because of politics.
Melbourne braces for anti-lockdown rallyVictoria Police are already out in force as they brace for a planned anti-lockdown rally in and around Melbourne’s CBD on Saturday afternoon. Remember when Australians were outraged at the treatment of Kong Kongers a few months ago? Well here we are....congratulations VictoriaPolice How is it illegal Patton, I refer you to the constitution and law where it state that people have the RIGHT to protest it is not illegal regardless of what you claim.
How many of these epidemiologists are there ? Surely prior to Covid most were out of a job ! In fact I am not sure what and where they were learning but it seems they all learnt something different ! Leading epidemiologist focused on cases numbers only. It would be helpful if she presented the numbers for self harm, failed suicide attempts, numbers of businesses that will never reopen, the number who are unable to afford food for their families. COVID impact - more than cases
Why do you keep putting forward views of zero Covid extremists and failed epidemiologists who have been wrong every single time. Do better, ABC. I have died 3x over according to ABC 'experts' Leading doomsdayer Its look like every doctor, scientist and journalist is expert on covid 19,ppl are confused who they should listen and believe. Its so much contradict info ppl just choose according to there own believes.
Sack Dan Andrews How about you interview a leading societal behavioural psychologist on the impact of these lockdowns and why the restrictions need to be removed. These epidemiologist really no better than the immigrant refugee taxi drivers .... A roadmap out , they are often clueless , take there microscope away , they have blurred vision. Take a taxi drivers GPS away , left stranded , can't use common sense , won't ask and won't listen
Another nobody government propaganda pusher
Victoria sets new record with 535 COVID-19 cases amid crackdown on anti-lockdown protestsVictoria has recorded 535 new locally acquired COVID-19 infections and one death as Melbourne braces for an anti-lockdown protest rally. With a whopping 535 cases, I'd say that the top priority for Daniel Andrews is to get this outbreak under control. And stop blaming people from watching sunsets or wanting to play in playgrounds. VictoriaHasFallen The police should get some dart guns and load them with vaccines. When the protesters show up they can vaccinate the lot of them.
Why there are so many “leading” epidemiologist show up out of nowhere? Why is enenbee supporting lockdown in Victoria? She has come out of the woodwork to get her 15 mins of fame! But her comments are far from proportionate! Compare Melbourne to the rest of aust and ask yourself why only Melbourne! Covid ain’t going away!! No incentive if dbl vacc!
Instead of pitching zerocovid extremists, look at Europe. But it takes effort to do good journalism and not push relentlessly a single hurtful narrative. I think we should lock up epidemiologists instead of the people. Victorians couldn’t give a rats arse what these “medical experts” say anymore. Enough is enough - 80% aged 70+ are now vaccinated and there are millions of doses sitting to be taken up by others - if they refuse bad luck! Open the fuck up and let us live ..
Getting sick of all the opinions, just hoping the Victorian Government balances the overall life of Victorians which it has shown it cannot do. End the lockdowns Baxter has already shown with her massive hypocrisy this week that politics motivates her just as much as science. So why should anyone listen?
Ah, yet another ‘leading’ epidemiologist. Why is every epidemiologist who supports permanent and brutal lockdowns despite the widespread and manifest harm they cause always ‘leading’? Aren’t there any mediocre scientists just carefully choosing their inputs into their models? Heard from enough epidemiologists in the last two years. Let’s hear from mental health experts & community leaders.
Freedom Rally: Victoria Police make arrests at Melbourne anti-lockdown protestHundreds of protesters shouting “sack Dan Andrews” have gathered in Melbourne to stage an illegal Freedom Rally as police close ranks to shut down the anti-lockdown antics. What do you bloody expect people are angry and it’s time to sack Andrew’s stop the lock downs Vic Government and Science vs Murdoch incited anti-science mob. There were more police than protesters.
Now do nsw There is a bigger parasite than Covid in Victoristan. And it’s name is Donkey Dan! Oh. Ita ButtNose' LNP version of the ABC had to dig up another Victoria negative statement... which has to be read to discover head line largely irrelevant. Ooohhh. Please give us a new STABLE government WITHOUT independants instability so they can wash the dirt out of the ABC.
Sixth Wave What does 'leading' mean? Is there a less ambiguous word? Should we assume it's just meaningless padding for hyperbolic effect? Or maybe it means we're being led down the proverbial garden path for the sake of hyping someone's idea of a good quote? This epidemiologist supported playground closures not because of any proof that they contributed to spread but because it 'sent a powerful message to the community.' Not credible.
“In Aug, Prof. Baxter warned any lessening of restrictions would see case numbers grow tenfold from 70 a day to 700 a day. Less than one month on, Victoria is recording a daily case total of over 500.” Incompetence all around: government, opposition, media and epidemiologists. could they weigh in less? it’s getting wearisome
Astrologists epidemiologists. I can't think of a more discredited profession. A collection of dropkicks that couldn't make it in finance . Gosh thank goodness Victoria is the only State Covid decided to lay camp and our intrepid media on hand to bring in the leading experts.
235 people arrested as Victoria Police clash with anti-lockdown protestersFTP It’s pro freedom not anti lockdown
stop giving these shameless attention seekers so much airtime Experimental vaccines are not always the answer. Lololllol Victorians are all about tempering expectations with noplandan
'You will face a hefty fine': People told to stay away from central Melbourne ahead of anti-lockdown protestPublic transport is suspended in central Melbourne as police attempt to disrupt planned anti-lockdown protests. The cops should not tolerate the abuse and violence they copped the last time the far right crims unleashed on them - go hard or go home. Any fines for the tradies who protested yesterday I wonder....
New area plunged into lockdownBREAKING: A new local government area in NSW will be plunged into lockdown tonight, after just one case was active in the community. That’s sad 😢 Insanity