Disease detectives baffled by mystery COVID-19 cases behind tough new lockdown

Disease detectives baffled by mystery COVID-19 cases behind tough new lockdown | @MeljCunningham

2/08/2020 11:45:00 PM

Disease detectives baffled by mystery COVID-19 cases behind tough new lockdown | MeljCunningham

Victoria's disease detectives are trying to trace the origin of almost 800 mystery coronavirus cases amid warnings the number will rise.

Very large text sizeIt was the number that changed everything for Victoria - a wave of perplexing infections resulting in almost 800 so-called mystery coronavirus cases.Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews cited the 760 mystery cases - of which the origins of infection remain unknown - as the catalyst for the government declaring

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Victoria Police members stop motorists leaving metropolitan Melbourne on Sunday.Credit:Paul RovereThe number was a huge jump from the 49 mystery cases confirmed on Saturday, with health authorities attributing the alarming rise in part to the 671 cases detected in the last 24 hours and reclassification of other coronavirus infections.

These cases are worrying because the source of the infections have eluded the state's disease detectives, meaning they have been unable to link them to known outbreaks or positive cases and therefore isolate all close contacts to curb spread.Advertisement

Australian National University infectious diseases physician Sanjaya Senanayake is hopeful the harsh new lockdown will be the circuit breaker needed to stop the rising number of mystery cases.Loading"Even just one case by itself is a concern," Professor Senanayake said. "So 700-odd is a real problem because it means there is a source of infection out there who is potentially, unknowingly infecting others as we speak."

The higher the number of community cases, the less likely contact tracing was feasible, he said.“But even if contact tracing is failing, you would hope these restrictions will mitigate that risk somewhat because even though you can’t find the cases, they are not moving around as much and infecting others."

Professor Senanayake said for the latest lockdown to work, the definition of what essential workers are must be tightened."We have to think about what are essential workers for Victoria and weigh up the risks and the benefits," he said.“This may include closing some food industries down for a short period of time.”

Abattoirs, for example, had been hotspots for outbreaks, but they were deemed essential because of the service provided, he said.Staggering shifts, strict social distancing, scaling back workforces, frequent deep cleaning and reducing the mixing of staff in shared environment or during meal breaks was critical in high-risk industries if they were to remain open, he said.

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"It's about working out if you can be more clever in terms of keeping business running by minimising human interaction in anyway possible."LoadingMr Andrews warned infections with no known source would likely rise in the coming days.“The notion of 700 [cases] perhaps doesn’t seem a very high number in the context of some of the challenges we’ve had to describe and deal with,” he said.

“That many mystery cases where we just can’t track back who you got it from, how and when, that’s when it’s really challenging. What that says is that if there’s that many mysteries you know about, how many cases don’t you know about?“That’s when you have to take an abundance of caution and say, 'Let’s get this to the point where it’s down to a very small and manageable number'.”

Increased spread of the virus means we have more asymptomatic people who are not getting tested, Deakin University epidemiology chair Catherine Bennett said.“It is happening right across Melbourne now because there has been enough spread across the community that there are enough non-tested people along the chain to make it impossible to connect everybody up,” Professor Bennett said.

“The more a case is linked to a big cluster, the more likely you are to be able to join the dots and find everybody associated. There is something else going on with these mystery cases that is more about local transmission. What is about their movements? Are they doing certain things or going to certain places that change or increase their risk?"

Professor Bennett said limiting human contact was the only chance Victoria had in ensuring invisible clusters disappeared. Read more: The Sydney Morning Herald »

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MeljCunningham How many covid-19 (or is it just any coronavirus now?) had flu shots? How are the tests done? What about false positives? Who (literally) is running the show? MSM do not ask important questions. MeljCunningham That's because there's a maximum of 10 'disease detectives' with any level of experience and training in Victoria (refer recent front page article identifying only 14 employees of this department). The other couple of thousand doing 'contact tracing' are just reading scripts...

MeljCunningham This is made up crap by the dictator and his cronies to put us under curfew MeljCunningham No one person has the whole story, so somewhere along the line, there will be confusion.

Disease detectives baffled by mystery COVID-19 cases behind tough new lockdownPremier Daniel Andrews cited the 760 mystery cases - of which the origins of infection remain unknown - as the catalyst for the government declaring a state of disaster and announcing harsh, stage four lockdown restrictions. 😢😢😢 The origin is DanielAndrewsMP and his criminal incompetence. They all came from thr hotel quarantine disaster. Mystery solved.

Victoria records 397 new COVID-19 cases, three deathsBREAKING: Victoria has recorded 397 new cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours and three further deaths. Thirty-seven of the new cases are linked to known outbreaks and 360 are under investigation. 9News | Nightly at 6.00pm More here: Media silent recovery rates! Report on real news, maybe on bill clinton? Thanks Dan. All because you couldn't control infections in hotels. Resign now!

Why are there are more COVID-19 cases in private aged care than the public sector?Of the 928 active COVID-19 cases linked to aged care, just five are in state-run homes. Why are there far more cases in non-government facilities, and is the private and public divide a fair distinction to make? PRIVATISATION IS THE PROBLEM It’s called Profit, at any cost. Primary profit, not primary care.

Man dies from COVID-19 in Sydney as NSW records 17 new casesNSW has recorded 17 new cases of coronavirus in the past 24 hours from more than 23,000 tests. 9News bill clinton is a confirmed pedophile, report it Die from or with with the virus. There's a difference. 17 cases out of 23,000 represents the error rate of the test. It is a big NOTHING BURGER with a test that is not fit for purpose. I bet if those people are retested a couple of times the results would differ. Scare mongering SCAMDEMIC

Sydney's COVID-19 clusters grow as NSW records 17 new cases, one additional deathNSW Health has revealed the COVIDSafe app helped identify two confirmed coronavirus cases and 544 possible contacts it had not already traced, as the state recorded 17 new cases | natassiazc natassiazc What a joke! Three political achievements by NSWHealth Keep numbers low to reopen economy, prove the sources from VIC, use the millions$ app for tracing TWO cases. AuspolSoCorrupt IStandWithDan natassiazc natassiazc Seems possible if it was a staff member at Mounties. But why would we require app data when all patrons should be signing in

Canberra returns to no known active cases of COVID-19 for a third timeThe last of five Canberrans linked to the Victorian COVID-19 outbreak has recovered. This is what happens when you follow the advice. Its not hard Helps when the population is 10 It's a bloody cold, so you will be having countless fluctuations in case numbers if you keep playing this foolish 'hide & seek' game with the virus, which you morons WILL not only lose miserably but just prolonging the inevitable stupidly.