by 3.2 percentage points. Clinton ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1 per cent. If the US decided its president as most countries do – by the national popular vote – the polls would have accurately predicted the winner.
This is where things went haywire in 2016. "The state polls – particularly in the upper Midwest – did have a major miss and pointed to the wrong winner," says Pew Research survey director Courtney Kennedy, who served on a committee that conducted In 2016, experts agree there were two specific factors that undermined the accuracy of the battleground state polls. The first is that many pollsters did not adjust for the over-representation of college-educated respondents in their sample. In order to ensure that their results reflect the general population, pollsters usually weigh the data according to age, race and gender. They have not always done so for education levels, which didn’t matter much for presidential polling in the past.
The second factor was so-called "late deciders": voters who disliked both candidates and only opted at the very last minute to vote for Trump. Exit polls showed a substantial swing towards Trump in the final week of the campaign in the four states where he won most narrowly. This means the state polls were not necessarily terribly inaccurate; they were simply not able to detect the late surge in support for Trump among undecided voters.
KnottMatthew silent majority coming out
KnottMatthew Simple, Trump was a novelty candidate, no one thought he would win. Clinton was sloppy and only needed name recognition in rust belt states, when eventually went for Trump. Won't happen again.
KnottMatthew
KnottMatthew What has changed is that everything that realDonaldTrump has touched has turned to shit, and all but the dumbest Americans can see it.
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