Bougainville's 20-year journey to likely independence could lead to 'crisis' in Pacific

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Another regional crisis looms in the pacific if the people of Bougainville vote for independence but are unable to reach an agreement with the PNG Government to ratify it, a Lowy Institute research paper warns.

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Australia's Foreign Minister Marise Payne has been presenting a neutral approach in her public comments on the referendum, saying she was focussed on supporting the vote to"ensure a credible and a peaceful and inclusive process".

"I would think that Australia would be aware of that and that may feed into some of Canberra's calculations in terms of how to respond.

"It seems pretty clear a solid majority are going to vote for independence. We're probably looking at 75-80 per cent plus.He said there are questions about whether PNG would ratify the vote. However he acknowledge that the new PNG Government had brought a different approach. "They dispersed funds in the first week of government for the referendum, so they've created a lot more goodwill I think in Bougainville than the previous O'Neill Government."The report acknowledged the"significant efforts" of the new Minister for Bougainville Affairs, Sir Puka Temu, and said the government was making progress on the referendum issue.

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Nat_Whiting Thankyou for the article. You say that Bougainville was administered by Australia for 60 years to 1975. That's correct, but your comment 'along with the rest of PNG' is not, as Papua was administered by Australia from 1906, taking over from the Brits (from 1884).

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