Money markets are reflecting increased speculation that the Federal Reserve might opt for its first super-sized boost to borrowing costs in more than two decades.
While a quarter-point increase is still the most likely scenario, swap markets are now pricing in more than 25 basis points of tightening by the end of March. With no move anticipated at this month’s meeting, that suggests traders are at least contemplating the possibility of a 50-basis-point move in March. The Fed hasn’t tightened that much in one shot since May 2000, when the central bank’s tightening cycle was already well underway.
An increased drumbeat around the prospect of a bigger hike in recent days may have added fuel to the sell-off in Treasury markets on Tuesday that caused benchmark yields to surge.JPMorgan Chase chief executive officer Jamie Dimon last week warned that Fed tightening might not be as “sweet and gentle” as some expect, while billionaire investor Bill Ackman said the Fed should raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points in March to “restore its credibility”.
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