Are the costs of lockdown worth the pain? Economists weigh in

to point out the trade-off of “quality-adjusted life years” from harsh lockdowns, including deteriorating mental health, increased domestic violence and higher suicides as the pressures of joblessness bite.It includes the crowding out of non-COVID-related healthcare, lower productivity for workers forced to juggle kids at home and what she estimates as a $50 million to $100 million hit to the future wages of children who suffer interrupted schooling.

Partly in response to Foster’s arguments and partly just to flesh out the issues, Preston and economist Richard Holden released a cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns in late May.Where Foster uses “quality-adjusted life years” or QALYs in her analysis, Preston uses a “value of a statistical life” methodology, which is based on surveys that ask people how much they would be willing to pay to buy additional years of life. This yields a dollar figure on the value of a human life of $4.

Foster is sceptical: “I actually don’t see the benefit of locking people down. The burden of proof should be on the government that these lockdowns actually save lives and I’ve not seen that that’s true. The hardest lockdowns started after infection rates were peaking and then started coming down.” Says Preston: “I think you give people the confidence to engage in normal economic life and I think without that confidence, it’s going to be impossible to get the economy back on track.”Preston says Sweden, which never closed schools, proves that substantial economic damage is inevitable even without lockdowns.Foster agrees Swedish people engaged in precautionary behaviour even without lockdown.

Foster concedes she has not published a full cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns because “the quest for that perfection is foolhardy”.But the war of the cost-benefit analyses over lockdowns is far from over.

Jess_Irvine There is no alternative worth considering

Jess_Irvine I’m not aware that there has been a true debate on the pros or cons of lockdown. The consensus has tended towards lockdown. I think the economic and social cost to our response will be beyond our worst fears.

Jess_Irvine What is this garbage?

Jess_Irvine Of course they aren't, the mental pygmy who decided this behaviour was medicine, or science needs to be in jail for the mess - it's based only on one fake maths model done in the UK in 2011 as part of planning for a major flu epidemic. IT'S ALL A HUGE DAMN CON

Jess_Irvine the r killing& decimated biz to save few lives

Jess_Irvine there is no debate.

Jess_Irvine No doubt the bloody bean counters will come up with a model that says ... 'For every life saved, it'll delay economic recovery by X; if we don't try to save any lives, economic recovery will be faster.'

Jess_Irvine The ccp virus can be finished by hydroxychloroquine, zinc and azithromycin . Please put those drugs Over The Counter to save more lives. No one will be safe if WHO,Politicians,medias still keep lying.

Jess_Irvine 'Are the costs of lockdown worth the pain?' doesn't make sense. Did you mean 'Are the costs of lockdown worth the gain?' or 'Are the benefits of lockdown worth the pain?'

Jess_Irvine Lockdowns are a deliberate cause for law and order

Jess_Irvine You’re not entitled to anything

Jess_Irvine For those who don’t run a business or have jobs affected by lockdown and health is priority....yes it is worth it.

Jess_Irvine How to Destroy A Economy and its People

Jess_Irvine in other words 'what cost a life' ? how many dead are we willing to accept as acceptable ?

Jess_Irvine Yep and if ScottMorrisonMP choose the less expensive route, we’d have no community transmission now and we’d be well in the way to being home and hosed, much like New Zealand ScoMoFiveO How is Honolulu? $500Bn LiberalAus debt on national credit card AusPol

Jess_Irvine Possibly we're operating under a sunk cost fallacy, we've already lost so much so we stick to our guns

Jess_Irvine No, they are not. Giving a few already sick people at their life expectancy a few extra months is not worth destroying the entire state over. Thousands of businesses are closed, many will never open again, hundreds of thousands of unemployed, billions in debt. Open up now!

Jess_Irvine No.

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