Fear of China, Russia stokes support for Australian military might

Andrew TillettForeign affairs, defence correspondent

Jun 28, 2022 – 10.00pm

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Fear of China and Russia is fuelling public support for Australia’s arms build up, with three-quarters of people viewing Beijing as a military threat, according to the Lowy Institute’s annual poll.

Russia, China and the prospect of war over Taiwan are now seen as the biggest threats to Australia’s interests, the foreign policy think-tank has found, outranking climate change, COVID-19 and a global economic downturn.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have alarmed Australians. AP

For the first time, a slim majority of Australians back making a military contribution to help the US defend Taiwan if China invades what it regards as a breakaway province.

Seventy per cent of Australians also back the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and United Kingdom under the AUKUS partnership.

“This year’s poll reveals that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken Australians’ view of their own security and region,” Lowy Institute polling director Natasha Kassam said.

“Australia’s new government will find support for more defence spending, tough policies towards China and Russia, and stronger engagement in our region and on the world stage.”

As Chinese President Xi Jinping has become authoritarian and sought to pressure Australia with a series of trade sanctions, attacks in Communist Party media outlets or by Foreign Ministry officials and a ban on ministerial contact only recently ended, Australian attitudes towards China have hardened dramatically since 2017.

This year’s Lowy Poll found 75 per cent of Australians now viewed China as a likely military threat compared to 46 per cent in 2018.

As China duchesses Pacific nations for security agreements, most notably Solomon Islands, 88 per cent of people expressed alarm over the prospect of a Chinese military base in the region.

Despite China’s status as Australia’s biggest trading partner, only 33 per cent of Australians see China more as an economic partner, compared to 63 per cent who regard it as more of a military threat.

In 2020, 55 per cent believed China was more of an economic partner.

Eighty-seven per cent of Australians do not trust China to act responsibly in world affairs, only topped by Russia at 94 per cent. In comparison, 87 per cent of people believe Japan and the UK will act responsibly, and 65 per cent the USA.

Regard for Mr Xi has plummeted, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they did not trust him to do the right thing globally. Eleven per cent said they did trust him, a halving since 2020.

Only Russian president Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un are held in lower esteem.

Alarm over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has flowed through to a number of questions. Almost nine out of 10 people say they are concerned about China–Russia cooperation, while 92 per cent say the invasion is concerning.

Just over 50 per cent say Australia should increase defence spending, while its membership of AUKUS and the Quad also made the country safer. Support for the US alliance is at a record high, even though Joe Biden’s standing has slipped with Australians.

The turmoil is fuelling insecurity, with only 53 per cent saying they felt safe, a 17-point fall from 2021.

Andrew Tillett writes on politics, foreign affairs, defence and security from the Canberra press gallery. Connect with Andrew on Facebook and Twitter. Email Andrew at andrew.tillett@afr.com